Introduction
At the risk of overkill, I will limit myself to two more essays on global warming, this one on a review of the past two years and the final one on present conditions of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. From late 2019-, “Study after study published in recent months has underscored the rapid pace of global warming and the need to -urgently cut emissions of greenhouse gasses.” Teresa Ribera, Spanish environment minister, said “we have to do more in less time” in a prelude to the IPCC meeting in Madrid which expects to draw about 25,000 scientists, heads of state, negotiators, and activists.
Pre Glasgow and media remarks
The main agenda items include:
1. finalizing rules on worldwide carbon markets *
2. agreement on how poor countries should be compensated for destruction caused by rich country’s emissions * *
“Global warming is going faster” Climate impacts are occurring earlier and we are approaching potentially irreversible thresholds earlier than we previously thought” according to Germany’s co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
*The idea for emissions permits is that putting a price on carbon dioxide and gradually reducing the available permits will encourage countries and companies to cut their emissions mainly by shifting, to renewable energy sources
* * Compensating poor countries for environmental degradation damage by floods, hurricanes, and on CO2 and sea level rise is hard to attribute to allowing carbon emissions at this time. (Parra and Jordans )
Glasgow
Now fast forward to December 2021 as the Glasgow summit was beginning. Natural disasters are becoming common and the science so refined about what needs to be done.
Just last year (I’m writing on January. 1, 2022) a heat dome over the Pacific Northwest fueled unprecedented wildfires, floods in other areas, and droughts in still other places displacing thousands and millions in China to the point scientists issued a “code red for humanity”. That’s good news in that renewable energy (wind and solar power} have helped reduce predictions from a 4° rise (7.2°F) by the end of the century to 3°C rise (3.6°F), still a terrifying thought. At the level of change, it is postulated that 1 in 3 people would suffer severe heat (1 in 7 now), fresh water would be scarcer, and crop yields would significantly increase famine.
- President Biden has pledged to cut U. S. emissions in half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.
- Europe is pledging a 55 % reduction by 2030.
* China is only talking about-beginning to reduce by the end of this decade.
• India is shunning a net zero promise.
• Russia is hoping to reach net zero by 2060.
The United Nations admitted these weak nations have made little progress on “previous pledges but the delegates will make even more unrealistic promises at Glasgow which signifies the disconnect between rhetoric and what they are willing to do. Climateers should be honest and stop pretending they can alter the climate and think more about adapting to climate changes.
At the Glasgow conference last month the unofficial slogan was “we are fighting for survival of humanity.” Action was centered around three lofty goals:
- Countries must promise to reduce carbon emissions by 45 % by 2030 compared with 2010.
- Rich countries should contribute $100 billion per year to aid poor countries.
3. Half of that must go toward adapting to climate change’s worst effects.
Under the Paris Agreement of 2015, nations must revisit their previous pledges every five years and announce plans to cut even more and do it faster. The goal of the Paris agreement was to limit worsening to 1.5°C (2.7° F) since pre-industrial times. However, the world has already warmed 1.1° C (2.°F) since then. At the present rate, we will cross that rate in the 2030’s. Furthermore, trust between poor and rich nations is low and tension is high. Rich nations are accused of causing the problem but are asking poor nations to help pay the cost of solving the problem. (Borenstein. and Jordans)
- For protesters and activists, the phase is “1.5 to stay alive.” and scientists mean a multiyear average of 1.5° .
- A recent report from the Global Carbon Project found that there are 420 billion tons of CO2 in the atmosphere and this year spewed 36.4 billion tons. (Borenstein;) The overall goal is to achieve “net zero” by the middle of this century which means adding the same amount of greenhouse gasses into the-atmosphere as plants, oceans, and phytoplankton remove. (Borenstein) What effect does increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have on life in the sea? The following sequence of events is one example of the interdependence of the physical , chemical, and biological components of our world. If the equations look familiar, look back to essay XLV. (Baumer)
carbonic acid hydrogen ion bicarbonate ion hydrogen ion
CO2 + H2O ←-→ H2CO3 ←–→H+ HCO3– ←→ H+ ← →
Rx 1 Rx 2 Rx 3
carbonate ion calcium ion calcium carbonate
← → + CO3 – 2 + Ca+ 2 ←-→ CaCO3
Rx 4
CO2 + H2O are the reactants for reaction 1 producing carbonic acid which becomes the single reactant which dissociates in reaction 2 producing bicarbonate ion & hydrogen ion; the bicarbonate ion dissociates in reaction 3 to produce hydrogen ion & carbonate ion; carbonate ion (Rx 3) reacts with calcium ion to produce calcium carbonate (Rx 4) in the forward reactions.
Calcium carbonate is used by calcifers (i.e, coral, shellfish, crustaceans) for making shells or exoskeletons. However, if the reverse reaction in Rx 3 is favored, calcifers cannot use bicarbonate ion resulting in weak shells or exoskeletons. Those animals become more vulnerable to predators, a classic example of survival of the fittest to say nothing of less sequestration of CO2 which lowers the pH, thus making the ocean slightly acidic. (if carbonic acid sounds familiar to you it’s probably because it produces the fizz in our soda pop.)
Post Glasgow and beyond
- Although some progress was made at Glasgow, most nations, especially the U.S. and China have not achieved their goals from the 2015 Paris Accord and climate warming has continued to rise and we continue on a collision course with catastrophe.
- If you hoped that the 2021 Glasgow conference would save the planet then you were greatly disappointed. But if you expected some progress and a base on which to build in the future, you got that. The focus at Glasgow was to not forge a new treaty but add on to the existing one and build on it which it did in some aspects but failed in others. They agreed to explicitly target coal use and fossil fuel subsidies. As far as rich countries’ payments to poor countries, an agreement was reached in which “deep regret” was expressed and payments would become a high priority (Jordons)
- On the Home front, President Biden rejoined the other IPCC nations and promised an out effort to attain net zero status by 2050 by increasing solar and wind renewable resources, sources that are cheap. General Motors recently announced that it hopes to go all electric for light duty vehicles by 2035. and Biden has pledged to build charging stations.(Borenstein)
References
Baumer, L, Part XLV: The Chemical Basis for Smog and Particulate Matter; When Bad Air Meets Good Air
Borenstein, S., F. Jordans, Oct. 21, 2021 Everything is as stake as world gathers for climate talks, , Rockford Register Star, printed in Milwaukee, WI
Borenstein, S., Date Unknown, The magic 1.5 climate talks’ key goal, Rockford Register Star, printed in Milwaukee, WI Parra, A., F. Jordans, Dec. 1, 2019, Science warnings, US retreat adds urgency to UN climate talks, Rockford Register Star, printed in Milwaukee, WI
Jordans, F., Nov. 15, 2021 Positives emerge from new climate deal, Rockford Register Star, printed in Milwaukee, WI·